Auto dealers are bracing for a "dead season" after a sharp rise in the recycling fee.

      As of December 1, the mechanism for calculating the recycling fee has changed significantly: the base rate has risen to 20,000 rubles and is now multiplied by the customs coefficient. For new cars, engine displacement and type have become decisive, while for used cars it is the vehicle's age.

      Cars that could previously be imported for 3–4 million rubles are becoming economically unviable, notes managing partner of "Prestige-Auto" Aleksey Barmin. According to him, the parallel import of three-year-old crossovers from brands like Toyota or Honda will virtually stop. Even popular models like the Volkswagen Tiguan will remain profitable only in versions up to 150 hp, reports Kommersant.

      Those who tried to bring cars in during the last days of November risk facing a several-fold increase in the cost, Barmin says. Dealers "imported everything they could," but expect sales to decline a further 30–40%.

      According to industry experts, thanks to frenzied demand some 100,000 cars were sold and "stalled" inventories were reduced. Dealers currently have roughly three months' worth of stock, but then the market will "collapse into silence," believes Denis Bobylev, analyst at the "Chinese Cars" portal. In his view, recovery is only possible in the second half of 2026.

      Starting next year the market faces another blow — tax changes. The upper segment (6–7 million rubles) will be pushed up to 9 million, and demand will shift to cars priced up to 5 million, predicts Vladimir Popov, chairman of the board at Favorit Motors.

      Analysts estimate that by the end of 2025 only 1.3 million cars will be sold in Russia — significantly less than last year's 1.5 million. Even AvtoVAZ's sales have already plunged by a quarter.