Ghost figures: how the tourist flow of Sokolov transforms with the mood

      The theme of tourism in the statements of the governor has been a consistent thread for four years now. Each statement from the gray house brings new records: first, it was reported that 26,000 people attended the Sabantuy festival, then the press service of the Tourism Development Center announced 56,000. The same happens with data on the Velikoretsky Cross Procession — sometimes 17,000, sometimes abstract "tens of thousands." And the same story goes for reports on tourist flow — it's the same narrative.

      Numbers tend to change.

      Let’s recall: in May 2022, Alexander Sokolov became the acting governor of the Kirov region, and later, in September, after the elections, he officially took office. Less than a year has passed, and the press service of the gray house has already begun to sing the praises of how the tourist flow has increased since his arrival.

      On January 2, 2023, a news item appeared on the government website: "According to Rosstat, only in the first 10 months of 2022, 550,000 people visited the Kirov region (in 2021 — 340,000)."

      After four years, Alexander Valentinovich stated in an interview with one publication: "In 2022, there were about 200,000 tourists." He did not explain where the 350,000 went.

      Mirror, mirror on the wall, tell me the whole truth.

      Not knowing which Sokolov to believe (the one from the past or the present), we turned to federal and regional statistical data.

      According to Rosstat, in 2022, the number of accommodated persons in the Kirov region was 367.7 thousand. This figure did not match the statements from either the past or the present. Therefore, we went further and looked at what was happening with tourism in other years.

      According to statistical bulletins from Rosstat for World Tourism Day (issues from 2020 to 2025):

      2019 — 318.5 thousand;

      2020 — 213.9 thousand;

      2021 — 333.3 thousand;

      2022 — 367.7 thousand;

      2023 — 406.1 thousand;

      2024 — 424 thousand.

      These figures also match the data from Kirovstat: "In 2025, 437.4 thousand people used accommodation services, which is 3.2% more than in 2024, and more than a third (37.3%) higher than the pre-COVID level of 2019." Based on these figures, it can be calculated that in 2024 there were about 423.8 thousand people, and in 2019 — about 318.6 thousand people.

      In addition to data on the number of accommodated persons, Rosstat also provides statistics on trips. There, the figures are significantly higher because one trip equals one arrival of a tourist at a hotel or recreation center, and the same person can arrive several times a year (let's not forget about those who come for business trips or other reasons). For example, in 2022, the number of accommodated persons was 367.7 thousand, while the number of tourist trips was 801.5 thousand. The difference is almost 2.2 times — that’s how many additional trips the same tourists made when returning to the region (according to the methodology for calculating tourist flow published on Rosstat):

      2022 — 801,547 trips;

      2023 — 733,738 trips;

      2024 — 785,589 trips.

      The data on the EMISS website is similar, plus there are figures for the first 9 months of 2025 — 722,942 trips.

      It turns out that Rosstat, Kirovstat, and EMISS paint the same picture: a small but stable growth in the number of accommodated tourists and a roughly steady level of trips. There is no "million" here.

      Statistics against ambitions

      While three statistical agencies provide clear figures reflecting a modest but real growth, regional authorities ignore them. They refer to data from banks, to figures that were previously unpublished (as in the case of Sabantuy), and calculate in a way that may be convenient for them.

      The difference between statements and reality ranges from one and a half to four times depending on the year. The government’s own press release from January 2, 2023, reported 550,000 tourists for the first 10 months of 2022. Yet four years later, the governor mentioned 200,000 for the entire year. Tourists didn’t disappear — the numbers just changed.

      It can be assumed that Alexander Sokolov operates with some other counting methodology. But then it’s unclear why the same person reported one set of figures in 2023 and another in 2026. The methodology hasn’t changed during this time.

      There are two explanations left: either the governor was given incorrect data, or he himself chose the figures that looked better in interviews. In any case, the official statistics — Rosstat, Kirovstat, EMISS — do not confirm either "a million" or "two hundred thousand." They record a real, albeit modest, growth: from 318 thousand accommodated persons in 2019 to 437 thousand in 2025.