The growth of real wages in Russia will almost stop in 2026.

      Experts say the "wage race" in the country is coming to an end: businesses no longer have the resources for large-scale salary increases, and the labor market is gradually cooling. At the same time, the growth rate of nominal wages next year will be about 8.4%, but inflation will "eat up" most of the increase, Izvestia newspaper reports, citing data from the Bank of Russia's October macroeconomic survey.

      According to private investor Fyodor Sidorov, the central bank's conservative forecast looks realistic — companies have already faced rising costs and a higher tax burden. A slowdown in wage growth, experts say, may lead to a decline in purchasing power and a rise in shadow employment, but it will help contain inflation and stabilize the economy.

      Nevertheless, certain sectors will continue to show higher growth rates. In the IT sector, especially among artificial intelligence and cybersecurity specialists, earnings may rise by 10–15%. Growth of 8–10% is expected in construction, logistics and manufacturing, while in retail and the services sector it will be no higher than inflation.

      Professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Yulia Dolzhenkova noted that companies have become more cautious about hiring new employees and have begun optimizing expenses; layoffs are already taking place in some organizations.

      Analysts believe that moderate household income growth in 2026 will help avoid new price spikes. The central bank expects inflation to return to the 4% target by the end of the year, which will create more stable conditions for economic development.