Analyst: due to the negotiations on Ukraine, the dollar exchange rate may drop to 76 rubles.

      Recently, the media reported that the dollar could fall sharply against the ruble in the coming days. The reason is likely to be the outcome of the negotiations on the situation in Ukraine. We asked the analyst what, in his opinion, the course will be in the near future and how the negotiations will affect it.

      Vladimir Chernov, Analyst at Freedom Finance Global:

      "I believe that this year the ruble is strengthening mainly against the background of expectations of a geopolitical warming and the achievement of agreements on de-escalation of the military conflict in Eastern Europe, which in the future will entail an easing of the sanctions regime, because from an economic point of view, the ruble should have become cheaper on the contrary. Russia's trade balance account surplus in January-March 2025 decreased by 17.8% compared to the same period last year, to $31.8 billion rubles, which is a factor in weakening support for the ruble.

      An additional factor in the dollar's depreciation was the fall in its value against most world currencies, but the DXY dollar index has fallen by only 9.5% since the beginning of the year, while the dollar has already fallen by 29% against the ruble. Therefore, I think that the further course movement will depend on the results of the meeting of the delegations of the Russian Federation and Ukraine in Istanbul. With the appearance of the first results of the meeting of the negotiating group of the Russian Federation and Ukraine in Istanbul, the volatility of the ruble exchange rate will increase, and therefore it is impossible to exclude breakthroughs of the dollar exchange rate below 80 rubles with the appearance of some positive signals. I believe that with a favorable outcome, the dollar exchange rate may drop to 76-78 rubles, and with a negative outcome, on the contrary, it may rise to 86-88 rubles."