Analysts: by the end of the year, the dollar may rise to 90 rubles

      Recently, alarming forecasts regarding the fall of the ruble against other currencies have appeared online. We turned to analysts with the question of what forecast they can provide for the dollar/ruble pair for the remainder of August, September, and the end of 2026 as a whole, and what will influence the ruble's exchange rate. We also inquired whether it is worth investing in currency.

      Natalia Milchakova, leading analyst at Freedom Global:

      “We believe that overall, until the end of 2026, the range for the dollar will be 80-90 rubles, for the euro — 93-102 rubles, for the yuan — 12-13.1 rubles. In December of this year, we expect the rates for the dollar, euro, and yuan to be closer to the upper limit of the corridor. The forecast ranges for the second half of August and September are: dollar — 83-87 rubles, euro — 95-99 rubles, yuan — 12.4-12.9 rubles.

      In our opinion, the weakening of the ruble at the current stage is due to a combination of factors: the rise in geopolitical tension, the prospect of new American sanctions, the fading effect of the "Anchorage spirit," the volatility of oil prices, as well as the acceleration of inflation in Russia in June and July. During the summer period, pressure on the exchange rate may increase due to heightened demand from citizens for foreign currency during the vacation season.

      Currency operations by the Ministry of Finance within the framework of the budget rule play a significant role in the dynamics of the ruble. Since July, the agency has begun purchasing currency, which has had a restraining effect on the national currency, and in August, the scale of these operations increased. Against the backdrop of an existing shortage of currency liquidity, there is a risk of further increasing demand for currency until the end of the month — as a result, the traditional supporting effect of the tax period may be insignificant in August. If oil prices decline in the fall, it is possible that the Ministry of Finance will change tactics: instead of purchasing currency, it may start selling it or significantly reduce the volume of purchases, which creates potential for stabilizing the ruble's exchange rate in September.

      At the same time, an alternative negative scenario remains. If the Bank of Russia continues to gradually lower the key rate against the backdrop of high inflation, this could act as a long-term devaluation factor — in this case, by the end of the year, the ruble's exchange rate may drop even lower.

      In the foreseeable future, the development of diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukrainian conflict seems unlikely. However, one cannot completely rule out that the resumption of Russian-American negotiations on Ukraine will provide the ruble with some potential for growth. At the same time, the degree of sustainability of such an effect remains unclear.

      It makes sense for Russians to buy currency to protect themselves from the fall of the ruble, but it is important to understand that global reserve currencies, except for the yuan, are toxic for Russia. Therefore, we consider investments in currency instruments denominated in yuan to be more interesting. Savings can also be protected by purchasing gold from a bank (preferably in an unallocated metal account), as this is a reliable and time-tested asset that best protects investors from the depreciation of national currencies.”

      Alexander Potavin, analyst at FG "Finam":

      “By mid-August, the rates for the dollar, euro, and yuan have surged to their highest levels since the end of March. Since the May lows, the currencies have appreciated against the ruble by about 20%. Currently, more factors are playing in favor of a weaker exchange rate for the Russian currency at the end of summer.

      The summer decline in prices for Russian Urals oil has led to a significant reduction in the supply of currency from exporters, which has coincided with an increase in the volume of currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance. We believe that the increased demand for currency is also related to the rise in currency purchases for importing gasoline abroad to meet domestic needs, while the largest refineries are idle due to repairs. Local oil companies have needed currency to purchase equipment for repairing facilities damaged by drones, as well as retailers who have increased purchases of consumer goods abroad to replenish their stock.

      The current pace of the ruble's weakening indicates an unhealthy situation. If this continues, we will see the dollar exchange rate around 90 rubles and the euro above 100 rubles as early as September, which may not please the authorities, as parliamentary elections are scheduled for September. Therefore, in the next couple of weeks, countermeasures to stabilize the national currency may be implemented: verbal interventions or tightening of mandatory sales of export earnings.

      We expect that this week the dollar exchange rate will be in the range of 82.0-85.5 rubles. For the euro, we expect trading around 95.0-98.0 rubles. For the yuan — 12.1-12.6 rubles. Our forecast for currency rates in September: for the dollar, we expect trading in the range of 82-86 rubles, for the euro — 95-99 rubles, for the yuan — 12.1-12.6 rubles. Our year-end forecast: for the dollar — 85-89 rubles, for the euro — 96-101 rubles, for the yuan — 12.3-12.9 rubles.”