Lowering the key rate and the dollar at 100: what other surprises can we expect

      Alexey Musikhin, First Deputy Chairman of the Board at Hlynov Bank, responded to questions from Newsler.ru.

      - The Central Bank reduced the key rate to 18% annually. Do you think the rate will decrease or increase? And what does this mean for consumers of financial services?

      - The Bank of Russia has lowered its medium-term forecast for the key rate for this year. Accordingly, we expect a gradual reduction of the key rate to 15-16% by the end of 2025. Thus, depositors still have a good opportunity to place funds in banks at high rates. For borrowers, especially those seeking mortgages, lending will become more accessible as monetary policy continues to ease.

      - Why is a weak ruble beneficial for the economy?

      - The federal budget still depends on oil prices. The stronger the ruble, the less revenue the country's budget receives, leading to an imbalance between income and expenses, and consequently a budget deficit. This can result in increased tax burdens on the economy, reduction of various benefit programs, and other negative consequences. A strengthening ruble also negatively affects the competitiveness of domestically produced goods, as imported alternatives become cheaper.

      - Should we expect the dollar to rise to 100 rubles?

      - In my opinion, the likelihood of the ruble weakening by the end of the year is quite high. However, reaching 100 rubles per dollar under current conditions seems unlikely. A fundamental limiting factor is a sustained positive trade balance, ensuring a stable inflow of foreign currency. Currently, Russia’s export of goods exceeds its import. Once this situation changes, we may see a more significant weakening of the Russian currency.