Preferential mortgages are disappearing, demand is falling: what will happen to housing prices this summer

      The market is entering a phase of stagnation

      According to analysts, until recently, up to 80% of transactions in new buildings were financed by loans. Now, with the preferential programs rolled back, the main blow has fallen on the most mass segment — the "economy" and "comfort" classes. Demand in these segments is noticeably decreasing, and buyers are increasingly postponing their purchasing decisions.

      Experts note that the market has entered an extremely heterogeneous phase. On one hand, the reduction in the key rate is gradually reviving interest in purchasing housing. On the other hand, mortgages remain too expensive for most families. The income of the population is not growing as quickly as housing prices, so a sharp jump in apartment prices this summer is not expected.

      Prices will not collapse

      Despite the decrease in demand, experts almost unanimously reject the scenario of a sharp drop in prices. The reason is the high cost of construction.

      Developers are not ready to sharply reduce prices due to project financing and banking burdens. The market is likely to enter a state of sluggish stagnation rather than a collapse.

      What will start to decrease in price first

      Price corrections are already beginning, but they primarily affect problematic and overvalued properties. Apartments with inflated prices, morally outdated properties, illiquid layouts, old stock without repairs, and apartments in buildings with poor infrastructure are under pressure.

      Investment properties, which were purchased during the period of heightened demand at the highest prices, are also facing difficulties. This is especially true for studios and small apartments in oversaturated areas.

      At the same time, liquid housing continues to maintain its value. Good new buildings with favorable locations, developed infrastructure, and convenient family layouts are still selling faster than others.

      Buyers have started to count their money

      One of the main changes in the market, according to experts, is the change in buyer behavior. While many decisions were previously made emotionally, now pragmatic calculations are coming to the forefront. People have started to calculate monthly payments, liquidity, repair costs, and resale. This significantly changes market behavior, reports karelinform.ru.

      Against this backdrop, buyers tend to engage in longer negotiations. Many sellers are willing to concede on price, especially in the secondary market, where competition for clients is becoming increasingly fierce.

      Individual housing construction is growing

      At the same time, the market is beginning to shift towards individual housing construction. Buyers' attention is increasingly turning to individual housing construction, as the cost per square meter there is lower, and some mortgage programs continue to operate. For the same money, a family can get a house with a plot.

      Regions with a high share of business class and financial centers are currently feeling particularly stable. However, areas with low population incomes risk facing not only a decrease in demand but also a slowdown in the launch of new projects.

      When will the market revive

      According to analysts, a full recovery of the market is not expected in the near future. The main condition for revival remains a reduction in the key rate by the Central Bank. As soon as the regulator begins to systematically lower the rate (the projected corridor of up to 10% in the next couple of years looks realistic), the market will begin to show signs of life.

      Russians will gradually get used to more expensive mortgages and will enter into transactions with an expectation of further refinancing of loans. However, real revival of the housing market, according to experts, is unlikely before 2027.

      This summer, the market is likely to remain calm: without a frenzy, but with a growing number of discounts, bargaining, and cautious buyers who are increasingly making decisions not based on emotions but with a calculator.