Experts: changes to the family mortgage will make housing less affordable.

      Experts criticized the proposed change to the "Family Mortgage" program, under which the rate for families with one child could rise to 10–12%, remain at 6% for two children, and fall to 4% for large families. In their assessment, the innovations could make the program inaccessible to millions of Russians and even negatively affect birth rates, the Unified Developers Resource website reports.

      Specialists warn that if the rate rises to 12%, the debt burden for many families will exceed the threshold set by banks. According to their calculations, the monthly payment at such a rate would increase by almost 40% and could reach 43.5 thousand rubles. This will mean that a significant portion of potential low-income participants simply will not be able to use the program.

      At the same time, the 4% benefit for large families will be available to only a few — at most 1.2% of families meeting the new criteria. Therefore experts believe that the effect of lowering the rate for large families may be minimal.

      It is expected that before the rules change in Q4 there will be a surge in demand for family mortgages — originations could rise by 20–30%. But after the reforms the consequences will be less optimistic: some young families may lose access to cheap loans, and rising rental costs will make it harder to save for a down payment.

      Experts also note that a significant share of young parents are families with one child. That means they will be in the zone of the highest rate. Such an approach risks narrowing access to preferential lending, reducing the number of transactions in the primary housing market, and is unlikely to lead to an increase in birth rates.