Experts: Russians will have to wait at least another year for affordable mortgages.
The Bank of Russia cut the key rate by just 0.5 percentage points — from 17% to 16.5% per annum. Developers interpreted this move as a signal that mortgages might soon become cheaper, but markets reacted with a collapse in quotations. Experts say that such a cautious rate cut is explained by the regulator’s fears of a new wave of inflation.
The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, explained at a press conference that a sharp easing of monetary policy could trigger an “avalanche-like process” of rising prices and rates. In her view, if the rate were cut to 12%, demand for loans would surge, but the supply of goods would not keep up. The result would be accelerating inflation — above 12%. The key rate would become negative, and the process would get out of control, the Unified Developers’ Resource website reports.
Experts’ forecasts
IRN.RU predicts that in 2026 the rate will most likely fall only to 15%, that is, it will remain above the level at which a mortgage can be considered “affordable.” This means that:
- the average rate on housing loans over the next year will remain above 15% per annum, except for preferential programs
- a massive shift of savings from deposits into real estate will not occur
- the housing market will continue to operate without “cheap” mortgage money and without active participation from private investors.
As IRN.RU experts note, in essence we face at least another year without affordable mortgages. Even with a moderate reduction in rates in 2026, mortgages will remain an expensive instrument for the majority of Russians.
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Experts: Russians will have to wait at least another year for affordable mortgages.
In the coming months, mortgages in Russia are unlikely to become cheaper — even despite the Central Bank's recent cut to the key rate.