Mortgage rates will drop to 15% no earlier than 2026

      Despite the fact that the Central Bank's key rate remained unchanged for the third time in a row (21%), experts believe that mortgage loans will continue to fall in price within 1-1.5 percentage points. However, according to experts interviewed by RBC, a significant recovery in mortgage demand can be expected only if interest rates are reduced to 14-15% per annum, which will happen no earlier than 2026. With rates at 10%, excessive demand is possible.

      According to the Unified Housing Information System (UISWS) on March 23, the average mortgage rate for new buildings is 27.92%, for secondary housing — 28.41%.

      Irina Nosova, director of the ACRA group of ratings of financial institutions, is convinced that in order to actively revive demand, rates should drop to the level of 15% or lower. Igor Dodonov, chief analyst at Finam Financial Group, agrees with this opinion and believes that for a noticeable recovery in the mortgage market, rates should drop to about 15%.

      Alexander Tsyganov, head of the Department of Mortgage Lending at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, believes that mortgage loans will noticeably revive at rates of 14-15%, and at rates below 10% there will be serious demand with elements of hype. In his opinion, rates should drop by more than 10 percentage points from current values.

      Ivan Uklein, Senior Director for Bank Ratings at Expert RA agency, notes the economic disadvantage of market mortgages at rates above 10-12%, as they can only be useful to certain categories of citizens for short-term refinancing. With a mortgage with an average term of 25 years and a 15% interest rate, the client will pay four times the cost of the apartment. At a rate of 20%, you will have to "pay" for more than five apartments instead of one.

      Ivan Uklein believes that the current rates of up to 30% will not last long, but it is difficult to say exactly when they will return to 10-12%.

      According to the medium—term forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the key rate in 2025 will be 19-22%, in 2026 — 13-14%, and in 2027 – 7.5-8.5%.

      According to experts, to pay a mortgage on market conditions, when buying a two-room apartment in a new building, a resident of a megalopolis should earn from 170 thousand rubles to 528 thousand rubles. The highest salary requirements for approving a two-bedroom mortgage in a new building are in Moscow (527.9 thousand rubles), St. Petersburg (413.9 thousand rubles) and Kazan (320.5 thousand rubles), according to the website of the Unified Resource of developers.