Autumn course of the ruble: experts revealed what will become more expensive and what will become cheaper.

      Expert forecasts: three scenarios for the ruble

      According to an expert, an associate professor at the Department of Strategic and Innovative Development of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, three main factors will influence the ruble exchange rate in the fall:

      - The monetary policy of the Bank of Russia;

      - Sanction confrontation with the USA and the EU;

      - The situation in the oil market against the backdrop of the conflict between the States and Iran.

      The expert does not expect a rapid easing of monetary policy. The key rate will be reduced gradually. A sharp acceleration of this process could increase demand for foreign currency and create additional pressure on the ruble.

      — It is reasonable to assume that the ruble against the dollar and euro will continue to fluctuate in the range of 80–85 rubles per dollar and 90–95 rubles per euro in the fall of 2026, — the expert is quoted by karelinform.ru.

      At the same time, during periods of rising oil prices and from the end of September to mid-October, during the tax period, the ruble may temporarily strengthen: to 79–83 rubles per dollar and 89–93 rubles per euro.

      Another forecast comes from the head of one of the investment companies. She believes that this fall the ruble will feel weaker:

      — According to our estimates, this fall the ruble will remain under pressure, so we do not expect a sustainable return of the dollar and euro to the values of three months ago. In her baseline scenario, the dollar will cost 86–93 rubles, and the euro — 99–107 rubles. At the same time, this is more about gradual weakening than a sharp jump.

      Why will it be difficult for the ruble to strengthen?

      One of the key factors of pressure remains the reduction of the key rate: ruble instruments become less attractive to investors.

      An additional factor is the growing import. In the second quarter of 2026, its volume increased by 16%, to 87 billion dollars. The more currency importers need for settlements, the higher the demand for dollars and euros. In the fall, there will be a seasonal increase in government and consumer spending.

      However, it is premature to talk about an inevitable sharp weakening of the ruble. It is supported by:

      - A positive trade balance (the surplus of foreign trade increased to 65.4 billion dollars);

      - Currency earnings of exporters;

      - Relatively high real interest rates.

      Oil will also play an important role. In the fall, prices are expected to remain in the range of 85–95 dollars per barrel, and during periods of escalation, they may rise to 95–99. More expensive oil means additional currency earnings and can temporarily support the ruble.

      The tax period will give the ruble a breather

      Before tax payments, exporters actively sell currency earnings, increasing the supply of dollars and euros in the market.

      — A short-term decrease in the exchange rates of the dollar and euro is possible during periods of active currency sales by exporters, primarily before tax payments, — notes the expert.

      However, it is not worth counting on a prolonged strengthening of the ruble solely due to this factor. For a sustainable decrease of the dollar below 80–82 rubles, higher export revenues, a reduction in imports, or a return to a stricter monetary policy would be needed simultaneously. So far, this scenario seems unlikely.

      What will happen to prices in stores?

      For consumers, the exchange rate is important primarily because a significant portion of goods is either imported directly or produced using foreign components.

      Among the categories most sensitive to the weakening of the ruble, experts name:

      - Electronics, smartphones, household appliances;

      - Cars and auto parts;

      - Foreign medicines and medical equipment;

      - Clothing, footwear, cosmetics, and perfumes;

      - In food products — coffee, tea, fruits, and other goods with a high share of imports.

      At the same time, an increase in the exchange rate does not mean that prices will change the next day:

      — Prices usually respond to changes in the exchange rate with a delay. Companies first sell goods from stocks purchased at the old rate, so the main effect may manifest itself in one to three months, — explain the experts.

      That is why the autumn movement of currencies may fully reflect on prices closer to the end of the year or already at the beginning of the next.

      What will become cheaper?

      In the food segment, the situation is more complicated. Here, prices are influenced not only by the exchange rate but also by seasonality. September and October may become a period of relative price reduction for vegetables and fruits due to the new harvest. Experts expect deflation in this category at the level of 1–1.5%.

      In the non-food market, the stabilization of the ruble can also temporarily restrain prices. This may be particularly evident in household appliances, electronics, clothing, and footwear, where a decline in demand and stockpiling is observed. Here, a price decrease of about 0.7–1% is possible.

      Gasoline and utilities

      Gasoline prices in the fall are expected to remain approximately at current levels. As the production volumes of Russian refineries increase, a decrease of 0.5–0.9% is possible.

      As for utility services, experts do not expect an acceleration of growth above the parameters previously set by the government. Pressure on the fuel market in the summer, according to their estimates, should not lead to the cost of utility services exceeding the designated benchmarks.

      What does this mean for residents of Kirov

      Fall is expected to be a time of increased volatility. In one scenario, the dollar will remain around 80–85 rubles, in another — it may rise to 86–93. The euro, accordingly, is estimated in the range from 90–95 to 99–107 rubles.

      For residents of the Kirov region, this means a gradual, but not catastrophic change in prices for imported goods. The most noticeable price increase will occur by the end of the year. However, seasonal vegetables and fruits, on the contrary, will delight with price reductions.

      Experts advise not to panic, but when planning major purchases, especially of technology and cars, to consider the possible weakening of the ruble. In the meantime, one can calmly stock up on local vegetables — they are definitely not tied to the dollar exchange rate.