The second half of summer in the Kirov region may become the coldest since 2015.

      According to the authors of the Telegram channel "Amateur Meteorology in Kirov," the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped to -22.3, which is comparable to the indicators of the strongest El Niño episodes in 2015 and 1997.

      For July and August, as explained in the message, there is a direct correlation between SOI values and temperature in the European territory of Russia and the Urals: the lower the index, the lower the average temperature in these months. The correlation coefficient is 0.7.

      On the composite map constructed from data from 1997 and 2015, it can be seen that during periods of strong El Niño, the negative temperature anomaly covers the area from Crimea to Yamal. Forecasts indicate that a trough of low pressure is forming over northern Ural, while a blocking anticyclone is establishing over Scandinavia. These trends are already evident in medium-term and subseasonal forecasts.

      If the forecast holds true, the second half of summer in the Kirov region may turn out to be the coldest in the last 11 years.