Vasiliev's appointment to the structures of the Ministry of Defense: strengthening the defense vertical and a signal to the Kirov elites?

      Political and managerial duo: Vasiliev and Churin

      Appointment of Vasiliev as the head of JSC Voentorg (according to the service rusprofile.ru this happened in March) can be considered not in isolation, but as the restoration of the managerial tandem that successfully functioned in the Kirov region in 2017-2022. Vasiliev was the governor, and Churin was his right—hand man in economics, construction, and industry. It was he who, during Vasiliev's governorship, solved acute issues – from energy supply to the defense industry. Their tandem was technological, without unnecessary publicity, but effective.

      Igor Vasiliev was appointed acting governor of the Kirov region in July 2016 after Nikita Belykh was arrested and removed from office. The latter left the region with a deficit and an unbalanced budget: according to the Ministry of Finance, the state debt of the region under White exceeded 23 billion rubles, and the budget deficit in 2015 amounted to more than 1.5 billion rubles.

      With the arrival of Vasiliev and Churin, systematic work began to improve regional finances. The national debt was reduced by almost a third, to 16.2 billion rubles by the beginning of 2022. Already in 2020, the region reached a budget surplus of more than 2.1 billion rubles. Moreover, the region became one of the few that voluntarily abandoned treasury support as an external instrument for controlling budget expenditures — this happened with Churin's direct participation and was made possible by restoring confidence in the region from the federal center.

      The pandemic as a test of manageability

      Unlike in many regions of the Russian Federation, the pandemic period in the Kirov region did not turn into a crisis. While most regions were forced to dramatically increase their debts, they managed to maintain budget discipline, avoid deficits, and continue to grow their own revenue base. This was made possible by efficient tax administration, cost reconfiguration, and clear coordination of efforts within the regional headquarters.

      Thus, by the time Alexander Sokolov took office (May 2022), the region was transferred in a state of budget balance and with liquid reserves. Unlike many colleagues, Sokolov was not faced with the need to "deal with" the consequences of the pandemic, but was given the opportunity to focus on strategic tasks, from federal investments to infrastructure modernization.

      Now, having found themselves in the defense sector, according to a number of sources, both can again act in conjunction: Churin — as an effective manager in production, Vasiliev — as a person with access to key contours of the federal resource. In fact, this is the formation of a vertical of trust, built not according to party, but according to managerial logic: "we worked together — now we are scaling up."

      Regional alignment: who wins?

      This appointment has already caused a stir in the regional elite circles. There are cautious predictions that Vasiliev's return (albeit indirectly, through influence from Moscow) may unbalance established groups of influence in the region.

      Today, there is no pronounced political center of gravity in the Kirov region — after Vasiliev's departure, Governor Alexander Sokolov is gradually strengthening the vertical, but does not have the same administrative "backbone" that his predecessor used. Meanwhile, Churin — as a leader of production workers, as a media—supported figure on the defense agenda - is becoming an independent subject of influence.

      In this configuration, the strengthening of Churin is perceived by a number of elites as a possible challenge, especially if his defensive weight (and the channel of communication through Vasiliev) will be used to expand influence beyond Selmash.

      Possible hypotheses

      Such an appointment, seemingly formal, can actually launch several processes at once, both at the federal level and within the region. Experts and observers have already put forward a number of hypotheses about the consequences of Vasiliev's appointment to the vertical of the Ministry of Defense, especially given his ties to Kirov industry and politics.

      First, we are talking about vertical strengthening: Vasiliev can become the supervisor of defense or mobilization projects involving Kirov enterprises, including Selmash, which will give the region more central attention and, possibly, new investments.

      Secondly, the electoral potential: if necessary, to strengthen the patriotic focus on regional elections or within the framework of the state defense order, the Vasilyev—Churin tandem can also be involved in public policy. It is possible that Churin will receive support in his promotion to a higher position — in the industrial or even political vertical.

      Thirdly, according to a number of sources, there is a threat to weak positions: local groups focused on a more "social" block already see the risks of redistributing resource influence. The Kirov defense industry is becoming the "anchor" of the region, which will change both personnel and budget logic.

      What's next?

      Most likely, in the coming months we will see an increase in the activity of military-industrial complex enterprises in the region, increased information support ("patriotic industry"), visits from Moscow and the possible inclusion of new projects through the Ministry of Defense.

      Alexander Churin already looks not just like a former official who went into business, but as a figure of the systemic defense vertical — with a past in regional government, a present in the real sector and, possibly, a future in federal politics.